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As climate change accelerates, ensuring health commodities reach communities is becoming a major public-health challenge. Extreme weather events disrupt pharma production, transport and storage. In an interview, Michael Audu, a Nigerian public health professional, analyses some climate-smart supply chain strategies for Africa.
He explains how climate-smart logistics, digital forecasting, AI innovations and community health workers can strengthen Africa’s pharmaceutical systems against climate shocks and secure access to lifesaving treatments across the continent.
“The real win in supply chains will come when we can predict surges, plan ahead and act before disruptions happen, not after. To achieve this, we need continuous innovation in medical supply chains. Climate change keeps altering our realities and only systems that adapt fast will sustain access to medicines," says Mr Audu
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Michael Audu, MPH, DrPH (c) is a Nigerian public health professional and researcher dedicated to advancing climate-smart health systems across Africa. His work explores the intersection of malaria, climate resilience and health systems strengthening, driving innovation and policy dialogue for sustainable change.
What does pharmaceutical supply chains in disease control, like in the case of Malaria mean?
Africa still faces a high burden of malaria and supply chain management plays a very critical role in addressing it. It involves moving commodities from the manufacturer to warehouses, then down to health facilities, including hard-to-reach areas where end users finally receive them. I believe that supply chains are key to navigating the complexities affecting malaria programmes across Africa. Incorporating supply chain management effectively into our daily malaria work is crucial to solving many of these issues. Climate change has also become a very serious challenge that requires urgent attention from all health partners working in this field.
How is climate change already affecting the supply chain for pharmaceutical commodities in Africa?
We are seeing more extreme weather across the continent. I will use the example of Northern Nigeria, where there used to be limited rainfall. Over the years, heavy and prolonged rains have compromised supply chain reliability. When commodities are scheduled to reach a facility within five days, transporters sometimes find that bridges have been destroyed or roads cut off by flooding. They must find alternative routes, which causes delays and losses. Extreme rainfall has washed away bridges connecting one town to another, while flooding forces people to move from one community to another. When displaced populations move to a single area with only one health facility, it increases demand and leads to stock-outs. Commodities that were planned to last a month finish earlier, creating shortages.
Extreme heat is another big factor. In hard-to-reach areas where temperatures are extremely high, poor management of cold storage can affect the potency of vaccines. Even with all equipment in place, increased heat means we must spend more money to maintain them and keep vaccines potent. I have personally noticed temperature changes in Plateau State in Nigeria, where it used to be cold from December onwards. In the past two years, it has become hotter. This shows how much heat has increased, and it poses serious concern for maintaining the cold chain. The hotter it gets, the more we spend to preserve vaccine potency and equipment.
Your most recent research published in September, 2025 focuses on integrating climate change data into malaria supply-chain planning. How practical is it to do this and how can it be implemented?
During my research I discovered that integrating data is both practical and necessary. We already have large datasets, for example, from meteorological organisations and the District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) platform and we can combine them. By working with meteorological agencies, we can build predictive systems using artificial intelligence. AI can forecast rainfall patterns and extreme weather in specific locations. If we incorporate that information into supply-chain planning, we can anticipate where flooding will occur and move commodities ahead of time. For instance, if we expect flooding in a certain region, we can transport supplies in bulk to nearby facilities before key infrastructure is destroyed.
We can also train community health extension workers to be climate-conscious, equipping them to move commodities within communities before emergencies. Integrating climate data, vegetation data and malaria programme data on a single platform, combined with AI prediction, will shift us from reacting to crises to planning ahead. This approach allows us to forecast, plan proactively and manage pharmaceutical commodities efficiently. I believe it would be a game changer for Africa’s malaria, and the entire pharma supply chains.
What strategies can help when supply chains are disrupted by climate events?
Disruptions are now expected. After COVID-19, everyone in supply-chain management saw how vulnerable systems are. Climate change is now adding another layer of disruption every year, so we must prepare. First, we need to train community health workers (CHWs) and facility officers on how to respond when disruptions occur: what actions to take, how to handle emergency orders and how to distribute commodities. Training must include emergency supply-chain management so that when infrastructure is destroyed, they can still move supplies within their communities.
Second, coordination must be strengthened. All malaria implementing partners across Africa should work together closely, integrating climate considerations into planning. Third, we must improve data quality. Poor data leads to under-supply or over-supply of commodities. As rainfall and malaria cases surge, accurate data becomes essential for proper forecasting. Fourth, digital innovation is critical. We should integrate supply-planning data, climate data and DHIS2 systems to predict where floods or other disruptions will occur and channel resources accordingly. Finally, we need stronger storage mechanisms in high-risk areas. Establishing local warehouses in regions prone to climate extremes ensures commodities remain available even if central deliveries are delayed.
You mentioned the key role of community health workers in sustaining pharmaceutical supply chains. How can their role be strengthened and fairly supported?
In supply chain work, no matter how well-structured a programme is, it will fail if the frontline workers like the CHWs are not properly trained, motivated and compensated. In many countries, including Nigeria, health workers complain that government payments are too small. Some resort to selling free commodities to sustain themselves. Governments must address this by providing fair compensation and regular support supervision. Even with training, if workers are underpaid, attrition will remain high. We need to focus on four aspects here:
The worker: ensure they are trained, motivated and retained.
The facility environment: it must be safe and conducive, even during heavy rains.
Capacity gaps: close skill gaps in managing commodities and data.
Welfare and compensation: pay them adequately for the work they do.
I have visited many health facilities that are in poor condition, leaking roofs, flooded rooms and overworked staff doing both data and patient care. These workers need better infrastructure and at least one or two additional trained colleagues per facility. Compensation packages should be revised to reflect current economic realities. If governments believe CHWs are not skilled enough to earn more, they should invest in more training and then pay them accordingly. Once they are properly incentivised, they will work diligently and accurately, reducing issues such as falsified data or absenteeism. With climate change increasing workloads, their compensation must also increase to match the new demands of integrating climate response into health programmes.
What role can digital technologies play in strengthening pharmaceutical supply chains in Africa, especially in remote areas?
Many organisations have tried to modernise technology, but most of our systems still react to problems instead of predicting them. For example, we use logistic management information systems that show past data, not real-time realities. If a facility is flooded a week after a visit, demand will spike, but our system will still show old figures. That means we resupply based on outdated data and miss the real needs. To solve this, we need continuous innovation and real-time data. One idea I have been exploring is a digital inventory control card, a live digital tool showing what commodities a facility currently has, not what it had last week. This would allow immediate, data-driven decisions on resupply.
Innovation must reach every level, not just warehouses or central offices. Health facilities should have digital tools to record and report real-time stock levels and conditions. Transport logistics can also be improved through geo-coordinates to confirm delivery. We must also embed artificial intelligence in these systems. AI can provide predictive alerts, for example, flagging flood-prone areas or potential stock-outs before they happen. This proactive approach saves both lives and money. Emergency orders made outside normal cycles are costly, whereas predictive planning prevents loss and waste.
I have seen first-hand the challenges in Kebbi State, which has the highest malaria incidence globally among children under five. I believe that with AI-enabled, real-time digital platforms, we can predict and prevent many of these challenges instead of reacting to them after lives are lost.
“The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect those of any affiliated organisation.”